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Assessing the human capital outlook implications for skills development in the priority sector: Metal fabrication, capital equipment and transport equipment

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Kaiser Associates


research report



The objective of this study is to assess the demand and supply of skills within the metal fabrication, capital equipment and transport equipment sectors between 2011 and 2015. The study aims to inform the DTI - as a key interface between economic strategy and skills planning in South Africa - in the development of a medium to long-term skills planning capacity. The metals fabrication, capital equipment and transport equipment sector forms a significant part of the manufacturing industry. The sectors accounted for 44% of manufacturing sales (in Rands) and 29% of manufacturing employment in the final quarter of 2010. Based on data availability and international and local literature, a scenario-based methodology is employed to forecasts skills demand. The scenario model is a method to address the unknowable future by providing an overview of a set of possible outcomes. In this document, 5 growth scenarios are applied along with 3 labour elasticity scenarios (how sector growth translates into employment growth). The result is the 15 potential outcomes shown below. The demand for new employment is added to replacement demand (due to retirement, mobility, mortality, and migration) to give the overall demand by occupation. The main source of data is StatsSA Quarterly Labour Force Survey, which has employment data on 62 occupations relevant to this study. These occupations are grouped into 6 major categories for ease of presentation for the majority of the document.

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